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  1. Mercados de Previsão
  2. Economia
  3. Japan recession in 2026?
Japan recession in 2026?

Japan recession in 2026?

EconomiaOne-OffUS Politics9m
PolymarketPolymarketVerificar disponibilidadeSem KYC2% de taxa
Probabilidade implícita atual
Sim
Sim 26%
Qualidade do mercado

24 / 100

Baixa qualidade
Volume 24h

0 €

Liquidez

625,1 €

Baixa liquidez
Compra / Venda

16.0% / 35.0%

Spread

118.8%

Spread amplo
Variação 7d

-5.5%

Dados do mercado

Atualizado há 7 minutos

23/04/26, 22:2731/03/27, 0:00

Tendências

Resultado24hProbabilidade

Resultado escolhido

Yes26%

Regras

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Japan’s seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter percent change in real GDP (Quarterly Real Growth Rate, Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter), as reported by the Cabinet Office, is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q4 2025 and Q4 2026.

Polymarket
  • Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
  • This market includes estimates reported in both the Cabinet Office’s Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) and Quarterly Estimates of GDP (Second Preliminary Estimates) releases for the relevant quarters.
  • This market’s resolution will be based on the most recently available qualifying estimates for the relevant quarters at the time of each relevant release.
  • Any two consecutive quarters with qualifying negative GDP growth will be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of prior or later revisions.
  • For example, if upon release the relevant estimate for Q2 2026 is negative, and Q1 2026’s most recently available qualifying estimate is also negative, this market will resolve to “Yes”.

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Regras

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Japan’s seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter percent change in real GDP (Quarterly Real Growth Rate, Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter), as reported by the Cabinet Office, is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q4 2025 and Q4 2026.

Polymarket
  • Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
  • This market includes estimates reported in both the Cabinet Office’s Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) and Quarterly Estimates of GDP (Second Preliminary Estimates) releases for the relevant quarters.
  • This market’s resolution will be based on the most recently available qualifying estimates for the relevant quarters at the time of each relevant release.
  • Any two consecutive quarters with qualifying negative GDP growth will be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of prior or later revisions.
  • For example, if upon release the relevant estimate for Q2 2026 is negative, and Q1 2026’s most recently available qualifying estimate is also negative, this market will resolve to “Yes”.