PolymarketVerificar disponibilidadeSem KYC2% de taxaDados de resolução verificadosBem calibradoProbabilidade implícita atual
Não 94%+1.0pt
Qualidade do mercado
≤49 / 100
Baixa qualidadeVolume 24h
—
Liquidez
824,1 €
Baixa liquidezCompra / Venda
5.0% / 7.0%
Spread
2.0 pt
Spread moderadoComentários
1
Variação 7d
-1.5 pts
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 9 minutos
23/04/26, 22:20 UTC31/03/27, 00:00 UTC
Tendências
Ativos Sensíveis ao Macro
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
Recession this year?
KalshiUK Recession in 2026?
PolymarketUS recession by end of 2026?
PolymarketWill the US enter a recession in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill the US experience a recession during 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill the US enter a recession (2 consecutive quarters of GDP decline) by end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsRegras
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Japan’s seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter percent change in real GDP (Quarterly Real Growth Rate, Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter), as reported by the Cabinet Office, is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q4 2025 and Q4 2026.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- This market includes estimates reported in both the Cabinet Office’s Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) and Quarterly Estimates of GDP (Second Preliminary Estimates) releases for the relevant quarters.
- This market’s resolution will be based on the most recently available qualifying estimates for the relevant quarters at the time of each relevant release.
- Any two consecutive quarters with qualifying negative GDP growth will be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of prior or later revisions.
- For example, if upon release the relevant estimate for Q2 2026 is negative, and Q1 2026’s most recently available qualifying estimate is also negative, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
Mercados abertos
EconomyPOLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+10.0pt64%
- No change-10.0pt35%
- 50+ bps increase+0.4pt1%
+2 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 96,3 mi
- Volume 24h
- € 5,2 mi
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 2.5%99%
- Above 2.6%99%
- Above 2.7%99%
+23 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 656,2 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 85,1 mil
KALSHICPI in August
- Above -0.1%99%
- Above -0.2%+3.0pt99%
- Above -0.3%99%
+12 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 386 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 25,6 mil
KALSHIUnited Kingdom’s government budget balance in 2026
- Above -5.5% of GDP-2.0pt92%
- Above -5.0% of GDP-10.0pt80%
- Above -4.5% of GDP-20.0pt60%
+4 mais resultados
- Volume total
KALSHICPI core in August
- Above 0.0%99%
- Above 0.1%+1.0pt87%
- Above 0.2%-6.0pt30%
+8 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 29,4 mil
KALSHIState of the economy at the end of 2026
- Soft landing-5.7pt50.5%
- Overheating+11.8pt44.8%
- Stagflation-2.6pt2.9%
+1 mais resultados
- Volume total
- Germany’s government budget balance in 2026
- Core inflation in August 2026 (Core CPI YoY)
- Canada GDP: July 2026 (MoM)
- US government budget balance in 2026
- US real GDP growth in 2034?
- China unemployment rate in August
- GDP growth in 2026
- Recession this year?
- Japan’s government budget balance in 2026
- Government shutdown on Oct 1, 2026?
- China’s government budget balance in 2026
- France’s government budget balance in 2026
Criptos relacionadas
Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Japan recession in 2026??
- A Polymarket cota No em 94% em 10 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Japan recession in 2026? é resolvido?
- Japan recession in 2026? deverá ser resolvido em 31 de março de 2027.
- Como Japan recession in 2026? é liquidado?
- A Polymarket liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: This market will resolve to “Yes” if Japan’s seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter percent change in real GDP (Quarterly Real Growth Rate, Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter), as reported by the Cabinet Office, is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q4 2025 and Q4 2026.