If Trump wins, will the US enter a recession [WARNING: as measured by Sahm rule] before 2027?
One-OffEconomiaMacro & EconomyPolíticaEleiçãoUS Politics4mManifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualNão 88%
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Atualizado há 23 minutos
11/03/24, 23:22 UTC2/02/27, 07:59 UTC
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If Trump does not win the 2024 US presidential election, resolves N/A.
- Otherwise resolves No. I will use the Sahm Rule recession indicator as shown here: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SAHMCURRENT If any datapoint in 2025 or 2026 is 0.5% or greater (i.e. if the 3-month-moving average of unemployment is at least 0.5% above its 12-month low) then a recession is underway, per this rule.
- (For a "no" resolution, I'll wait until February 2027 in case of revisions, and use the most recent revision at that time.)
- Sweeps update: We may close this market temporarily around election day to prevent manipulation.
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Economy
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Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de If Trump wins, will the US enter a recession [WARNING: as measured by Sahm rule] before 2027??
- A Manifold Markets cota No em 88% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando If Trump wins, will the US enter a recession [WARNING: as measured by Sahm rule] before 2027? é resolvido?
- If Trump wins, will the US enter a recession [WARNING: as measured by Sahm rule] before 2027? deverá ser resolvido em 2 de fevereiro de 2027.
- Como If Trump wins, will the US enter a recession [WARNING: as measured by Sahm rule] before 2027? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: If Trump does not win the 2024 US presidential election, resolves N/A.