Will the US enter a recession in 2026?
BitcoinOne-OffEconomiaMacro & EconomyFedMemecoinTrade PolicyChessChinaEsportesEuropeUS Politics3mManifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualNão 94.9%
Previsores
31
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 11 horas
Desatualizado12/02/26, 09:21 UTC1/01/27, 00:00 UTC
Tendências
Ativos Sensíveis ao Macro
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
If Trump wins, will the US enter a recession [WARNING: as measured by Sahm rule] before 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill the US enter a recession (2 consecutive quarters of GDP decline) by end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill the US enter a recession by the end of 2025?
Manifold MarketsWill the United States economy enter a recession by the end of Q4 2026?
ForecastExWill Canada's economy enter a recession by the end of Q4 2026?
ForecastExWill the Eurozone enter a recession before the end of Q4 2026?
ForecastExRegras
Resolves YES if the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) declares that the US economy entered a recession at any point during 2026, OR if two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth are recorded in 2026.
- Key context:
- Tariff escalation with China, EU, and other trading partners is creating economic uncertainty
- Federal spending cuts from DOGE are reducing government contribution to GDP
- Bitcoin and equity markets have experienced significant corrections in early 2026
- Unemployment has ticked up from 4.0% to 4.3%
