Will the US enter a recession in 2026?
BitcoinOne-OffEconomiaMacro e economiaFedMemecoinPolítica comercialXadrezChinaEsportesEuropaPolítica dos EUA2m
Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualNão 95.9%
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Atualizado há 13 horas
Desatualizado12/02/26, 09:21 UTC1/01/27, 00:00 UTC
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ForecastExRegras
Resolves YES if the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) declares that the US economy entered a recession at any point during 2026, OR if two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth are recorded in 2026.
- Key context:
- Tariff escalation with China, EU, and other trading partners is creating economic uncertainty
- Federal spending cuts from DOGE are reducing government contribution to GDP
- Bitcoin and equity markets have experienced significant corrections in early 2026
- Unemployment has ticked up from 4.0% to 4.3%
