KalshiVerificar disponibilidadeKYC obrigatório2% de taxaDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoProbabilidade implícita atual
Não 88%
Qualidade do mercado
≤49 / 100
Baixa qualidadeVolume 24h
6,7 €
Liquidez
1,6 mil €
Baixa liquidezCompra / Venda
8.0% / 11.0%
Spread
3.0 pt
Spread moderadoDados do mercado
Atualizado há 3 minutos
12/05/26, 00:00 UTC8/01/27, 13:29 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
Regras
If the real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator for any monthly observation from Issuance through December 2026 is At least 0.50ㅤ, then the market resolves to Yes.
Liquida via:FRED
- The Underlying is the first published value for the applicable monthly observation in FRED series SAHMREALTIME.
- Revisions to previously published values will not be considered.
- The market does not depend on whether the National Bureau of Economic Research declares a recession.
- A value exactly equal to 0.50 qualifies.
Mercados abertos
Economy
POLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+2.0pt54%
- No change-3.0pt45%
- 50+ bps increase1%
+2 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 89,9 mi
- Volume 24h
- € 1,7 mi
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 2.5%99%
- Above 2.6%99%
- Above 2.8%99%
+23 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 541,2 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 30,7 mil
KALSHICPI in August
- Above 0.1%99%
- Above -0.4%+1.0pt99%
- Above -0.3%99%
+12 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 334,2 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 12,8 mil
KALSHIUS government budget balance in 2026
- Above -8.5% of GDP97%
- Above -8.0% of GDP71%
- Above -7.5% of GDP58%
+4 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 10,7 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 10,7 mil
KALSHIGovernment shutdown on Oct 1, 2026?
- No98%
- Yes2%
- Volume total
- € 612,5 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 6,9 mil
KALSHIRecession this year?
- No95%
- Yes+1.0pt5%
- Volume total
- € 2,9 mi
- Volume 24h
- € 5,3 mil
- Recession in 2027?
- Will the Citrini scenario happen?
- France’s government budget balance in 2026
- United Kingdom’s government budget balance in 2026
- Eurozone GDP growth in Q3 2026
- China’s government budget balance in 2026
- Germany’s government budget balance in 2026
- CPI in September
- CPI core in August
- State of the economy at the end of 2026
- US real GDP growth in Q3 2026?
- Unemployment in September
Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Will the Sahm Rule trigger in 2026??
- A Kalshi cota No em 88% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Will the Sahm Rule trigger in 2026? é resolvido?
- Will the Sahm Rule trigger in 2026? deverá ser resolvido em 8 de janeiro de 2027.
- Como Will the Sahm Rule trigger in 2026? é liquidado?
- A Kalshi liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: If the real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator for any monthly observation from Issuance through December 2026 is At least 0.50ㅤ, then the market resolves to Yes.