Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atual
Não 95.6%
Previsores
587
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
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Atualizado há 13 horas
Desatualizado2/07/24, 10:02 UTC18/11/26, 23:00 UTC
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Do you think the third World War will occur before the much-anticipated release of Grand Theft Auto 6? Share your thoughts and predictions in this poll.
- The prediction resolves to yes if war is declared between 2 or more of the super powers before GTA 6's release.
- Edit: declaration may be implicit - 03/07/2024 Edit: human troops are not a must to meet requirements to this question's criteria - 30/01/2025 Edit: length of conflict is also not a must to meet requirements - 30/01/2025
- Edit: fixed a weird comment by the AI summary, sorry for the confusion it may have caused. - 05/04/2025 Edit: small clarification that if GTA is delayed, this question would follow - 05/04/2025 Edit: GTA has been delayed to May 2026, thus this question will follow (https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cjew84ev3yyo) - 03/05/2025 Edit: GTA has been delayed again to November 2026 (https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cwypgvd9j8qo) - 12/11/2025
- Update 2025-01-30 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Development of Fully Mechanized Armies: The emergence of fully mechanized military forces (e.g., AI-driven drones, autonomous weapons systems) could enable a new form of direct conflict.
- In such a scenario, nations might be able to shield their populations in bunkers while launching large-scale, all-out attacks on their adversaries.
Mercados abertos
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt74%
- New People (NL)-3.0pt22%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.9pt3%
+5 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 22,3 mi
- Volume 24h
- € 581,3 mil
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-3.3pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.8%
- September 30-3.5pt12.3%
+17 mais resultados
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30-12.5pt69%
- September 18-14.5pt62%
- September 11-17.5pt51%
+2 mais resultados
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 31+1.0pt8%
- September 30+0.4pt2%
- July 310%
+7 mais resultados
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
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POLYMARKETWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- No-1.0pt84.2%
- Yes+1.0pt15.8%
- Volume total
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- Volume 24h
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Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de A 3ª Guerra Mundial acontecerá antes do GTA6??
- A Manifold Markets cota No em 96% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando A 3ª Guerra Mundial acontecerá antes do GTA6? é resolvido?
- A 3ª Guerra Mundial acontecerá antes do GTA6? deverá ser resolvido em 18 de novembro de 2026.
- Como A 3ª Guerra Mundial acontecerá antes do GTA6? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: Do you think the third World War will occur before the much-anticipated release of Grand Theft Auto 6? Share your thoughts and predictions in this poll.