Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualNão 84.6%
Previsores
85
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 2 horas
Desatualizado24/01/26, 19:04 UTC31/12/27, 23:59 UTC
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KalshiRegras
This market resolves YES if it is possible to fully interpret a GPT-2 level capability model, or create an inherently interpretable GPT-2 level capability model.
- Anywhere below where I say "GPT-2" I mean it as shorthand for the above, rather than literally the specific GPT-2 model.
- There is no rigorous definition of "fully interpret", so it will be based on my opinion.
- But here are some examples of things we'd be able to do if we had full interpretability:
- Being able to come up with a detailed, fully granular explanation (e.g not about entire attention heads or "super nodes", but individual channels or features) that can be validated by some strong form of ablation (probably much stronger than zero/mean ablation).
- Being able to make very nontrivial and unobvious predictions about the model's behavior in unobserved situations.