Will there be fighting in St. Petersburg, Russia’s major northern city, during 2026?
GeopolíticaOne-OffRússia / UcrâniaEuropa2m
Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualNão 88.8%
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Atualizado há 53 minutos
Atrasado1/01/26, 02:17 UTC1/01/27, 20:59 UTC
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What counts as "fighting"?
- - Clashes between organized armed groups using military weapons (Automatic rifles, machine guns, rockets, armored vehicles, etc.).
- - Example: Prigozhin’s 2023 rebellion in Rostov (seizing military sites, clashes with border guards).
- - Does NOT count:
- - Terrorist attacks targeting civilians (e.g., Crocus City Hall).
- - Arson, sabotage, or protests **unless** the group: