Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualNão 54%
Previsores
10
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 18 minutos
27/05/25, 02:14 UTC1/01/35, 23:59 UTC
Tendências
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Resolution Criteria:
- This market will resolve YES if, before January 1, 2035, credible sources (e.g., official governmental announcements, reputable international media, major academic institutions) report a military conflict involving both the United States and China resulting in at least 1,000 confirmed military deaths for each side.
- Military deaths must include uniformed personnel, excluding civilian casualties or indirect deaths (e.g., deaths from economic disruption or secondary effects).
- Covert or proxy conflicts will count ONLY if direct involvement of official U.S. and Chinese military personnel is verifiably documented by credible sources, resulting in at least 1,000 fatalities on each side.
- This market resolves NO if no such conflict meeting the criteria occurs by January 1, 2035.