Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualSim 85%
Previsores
17
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 14 horas
Desatualizado16/10/23, 02:31 UTC2/01/31, 04:59 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
Will the IMO grand challenge be completed before the end of 2030?
Manifold MarketsVesuvius eruption with 1+ VEI in 2026?
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PolymarketWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
KalshiWill some Millennium Prize Prize Problem be solved in 2026?
Manifold MarketsRegras
This market resolves YES for generally the same criteria as https://manifold.markets/LarsDoucet/will-the-vesuvius-challenge-recover
- HOWEVER, the test is not for "at least one known lost work" but rather "at least 85% of one 1000-word-or-more passage".
- This should diverge from @LarsDoucet 's market and result in YES when his would NO in at least the following conditions:
- The challenge recovers everything, but the original work stored in the Vesuvius library was already universally incomplete (e.g., if it turns out scribes as of 79 AD already had lost access to part of a work)
- The challenge recovers everything, but the original work stored in the Vesuvius library was locally incomplete (e.g., a particular chapter scroll of a larger work had been by bad luck been borrowed that day by a scribe for copying, and that scribe took the scroll with him when evacuating, and it was lost to history)
- The challenge doesn't recover everything -- we just have less luck recovering consistent long blocks of text, versus fragmentary passages, than Lars hopes.
Mercados abertos
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- Before 2035+19.9pt95%
- Before 2030+6.0pt82%
- Before 2029+7.3pt55%
+2 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 226,3 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 125,2 mil
POLYMARKETWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- December 31+0.1pt4%
- September 30+0.1pt1%
- April 300%
+3 mais resultados
KALSHIWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
- Before Jan 20, 2029+1.0pt21%
- Before 202813%
- Before 2027+0.1pt5%
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- Volume total
- € 28,6 mi
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- Before 203248%
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- Volume total
- € 108,3 mil
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- Yes-0.9pt3%
- Volume total
- € 1,6 mi
- Volume 24h
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- 4.2-4.4m-20.9pt26.5%
- 4.6-4.8m+0.8pt2.9%
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Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Will the Vesuvius Challenge recover at least 85% of one 1000-word passage by 2030??
- A Manifold Markets cota Yes em 85% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Will the Vesuvius Challenge recover at least 85% of one 1000-word passage by 2030? é resolvido?
- Will the Vesuvius Challenge recover at least 85% of one 1000-word passage by 2030? deverá ser resolvido em 2 de janeiro de 2031.
- Como Will the Vesuvius Challenge recover at least 85% of one 1000-word passage by 2030? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: This market resolves YES for generally the same criteria as https://manifold.markets/LarsDoucet/will-the-vesuvius-challenge-recover