Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualNão 90.7%
Previsores
28
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
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Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 9 horas
Desatualizado25/06/25, 20:25 UTC31/12/28, 23:59 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
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Will the US or Israel threaten to use nuclear weapons against Iran before 2029?
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PolymarketUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
PolymarketRegras
Resolution Criteria:
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if, before January 1, 2029, either the United States or Israel attempts to detonate a nuclear device in an offensive capacity targeting Iranian territory.
- Resolution will be based on a combination of the following sources that collectively provide compelling evidence of such an event:
- - Official government statements from the US, Israeli, or Iranian governments.
- - Credible news reporting from media organizations.
- - International bodies' reports, including those from the United Nations, IAEA, or CTBTO.
Mercados abertos
Middle EastPOLYMARKETWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- No83.2%
- Yes16.8%
- Volume total
- € 58,3 mi
- Volume 24h
- € 260,3 mil
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-0.1pt56.1%
- October 3131.8%
- September 30-2.0pt10.3%
+17 mais resultados
POLYMARKETBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- December 31-2.0pt19%
- October 31-1.0pt10%
- September 30-1.5pt2%
+9 mais resultados
POLYMARKETPrime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Gadi Eizenkot+1.3pt53.6%
- Benjamin Netanyahu-2.0pt28.9%
- Naftali Bennett9.3%
+16 mais resultados
POLYMARKETNext round of US-Iran peace talks by which date?
- March 31, 2027+2.0pt63%
- December-5.5pt41%
- October+6.0pt27%
+9 mais resultados
KALSHIWhen will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?
- Before Jan 1, 202968%
- Before Jul 1, 202868%
- Before Jan 1, 2028+3.0pt58%
+10 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 19,9 mi
- Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by which date?
- US-Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be?
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by which date?
- Crude Oil all time high by which date?
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Will the US or Israel use nuclear weapons against Iran before 2029??
- A Manifold Markets cota No em 91% em 18 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Will the US or Israel use nuclear weapons against Iran before 2029? é resolvido?
- Will the US or Israel use nuclear weapons against Iran before 2029? deverá ser resolvido em 31 de dezembro de 2028.
- Como Will the US or Israel use nuclear weapons against Iran before 2029? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: Resolution Criteria: