Will the US government introduce any domestic restrictions on open-weight LLMs by EOY 2026?
One-OffIARegulamentaçãoUS PoliticsTecnologia3m
Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atual
Não 74.7%
Previsores
19
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 16 horas
Desatualizado13/06/26, 21:36 UTC31/12/26, 23:59 UTC
Tendências
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For the purposes of this market, “to introduce a domestic restriction on open-weight LLMs” means new federal action that removes or limits US citizens’ ability to develop, access, use, or modify one or more open-weight LLMs. “New” is relative to this market’s creation on June 13, 2026.
- I will resolve to YES if, by the end of 2026, this occurs, is publicly reported, and is documented on this market.
- I will resolve to NO at the close of the market otherwise.
- Update 2026-06-25 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): A supply chain risk designation applied to an open-weight model (similar to the one applied to Claude) would not resolve this market YES.
- The market tracks new general restrictions on what Americans can do with open-weight LLMs, not restrictions limited to government/defense contractor usage.