Will LLM restrictions become law in 2026?

IA RegulamentaçãoOne-Off5m

KalshiVerificar disponibilidadeKYC obrigatório2% de taxaDados de resolução verificadosCalibração aproximada

Probabilidade implícita atual

Sim 14%

Qualidade do mercado

44 / 100

Baixa qualidade

Volume 24h

3,5 €

Liquidez

13,4 mil €

Liquidez média

Compra / Venda

14.0% / 16.0%

Spread

14.3%

Spread amplo

Dados do mercado

Atualizado há 14 minutos

29/12/25, 15:002/01/27, 4:59

Tendências

Resultado24hProbabilidade

Apenas fundos simulados, sem dinheiro realIsto não é aconselhamento financeiro

Resultado escolhido

Yes14%

Aposta (USDT)

Regras

If a bill becomes law regulating AI by Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

The bill must impose one of the following restrictions on products using large language models: forbid their creation; set limits on how they're trained, for example by limiting access to previously usable training data or by setting limits on the number of parameters they may be trained with; prevent their use for certain applications or uses, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web; or restrict the ability of US citizens to use foreign LLM-based products or restrict US operated LLM products or businesses from being sold to foreign customers or entities.
The export restriction must be specific, and not universally applied to all exports or exports of a broad industry.
For example, a blanket ban on exports to a specific country would not qualify, and neither would a blanket ban on allowing the purchase of US businesses by investors in a specific country.
Introducing a ban that specifically limits the export of artificial intelligence or machine learning software to a specific country or a broad number of countries would qualify if it was known to apply to LLM products.
An introduced bill specifically classifying artificial intelligence software or machine learning models such that they would newly qualify for existing export bans would qualify.

Tendência de volume

2 de jul.16d de dados21 de jul.

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Which banks will take Anthropic public?

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William Blair: 34%

KALSHI

What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?

0 €

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POLYMARKET

Ativos nestes tópicos

BitcoinBTC$66,425.61+1.75%

EthereumETH$1,934.63+1.35%

SolanaSOL$78.40+0.63%

DogecoinDOGE$0.0736+1.87%

XRPXRP$1.14+2.71%

BNBBNB$573.63+0.23%

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Regras

If a bill becomes law regulating AI by Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

The bill must impose one of the following restrictions on products using large language models: forbid their creation; set limits on how they're trained, for example by limiting access to previously usable training data or by setting limits on the number of parameters they may be trained with; prevent their use for certain applications or uses, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web; or restrict the ability of US citizens to use foreign LLM-based products or restrict US operated LLM products or businesses from being sold to foreign customers or entities.
The export restriction must be specific, and not universally applied to all exports or exports of a broad industry.
For example, a blanket ban on exports to a specific country would not qualify, and neither would a blanket ban on allowing the purchase of US businesses by investors in a specific country.
Introducing a ban that specifically limits the export of artificial intelligence or machine learning software to a specific country or a broad number of countries would qualify if it was known to apply to LLM products.
An introduced bill specifically classifying artificial intelligence software or machine learning models such that they would newly qualify for existing export bans would qualify.

Will LLM restrictions become law in 2026?

IA RegulamentaçãoOne-Off5m

KalshiVerificar disponibilidadeKYC obrigatório2% de taxaDados de resolução verificadosCalibração aproximada

Probabilidade implícita atual

Sim 14%

Qualidade do mercado

44 / 100

Baixa qualidade

Volume 24h

3,5 €

Liquidez

13,4 mil €

Liquidez média

Compra / Venda

14.0% / 16.0%

Spread

14.3%

Spread amplo

Dados do mercado

Atualizado há 14 minutos

29/12/25, 15:002/01/27, 4:59

Tendências

Resultado24hProbabilidade

Apenas fundos simulados, sem dinheiro realIsto não é aconselhamento financeiro

Resultado escolhido

Yes14%

Aposta (USDT)

Regras

If a bill becomes law regulating AI by Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

The bill must impose one of the following restrictions on products using large language models: forbid their creation; set limits on how they're trained, for example by limiting access to previously usable training data or by setting limits on the number of parameters they may be trained with; prevent their use for certain applications or uses, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web; or restrict the ability of US citizens to use foreign LLM-based products or restrict US operated LLM products or businesses from being sold to foreign customers or entities.
The export restriction must be specific, and not universally applied to all exports or exports of a broad industry.
For example, a blanket ban on exports to a specific country would not qualify, and neither would a blanket ban on allowing the purchase of US businesses by investors in a specific country.
Introducing a ban that specifically limits the export of artificial intelligence or machine learning software to a specific country or a broad number of countries would qualify if it was known to apply to LLM products.
An introduced bill specifically classifying artificial intelligence software or machine learning models such that they would newly qualify for existing export bans would qualify.

Tendência de volume

2 de jul.16d de dados21 de jul.

Mercados Relacionados

Will the US enact AI regulation for all Mythos+ models in 2026?

878,2 €

Sim: 14.3%

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will another state enact a data center moratorium in 2026?

181,5 €

Sim: 56%

KALSHI

Will a top US AI lab be nationalized by 2030?

145,5 €

Sim: 72.6%

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will the US restrict US companies from using Chinese open models

57,9 €

Ban use of open Chinese models by government applications in production: 70.9%

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Which banks will take Anthropic public?

0,9 €

William Blair: 34%

KALSHI

What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?

0 €

$1.5T–$1.75T: 30%

POLYMARKET

Ativos nestes tópicos

BitcoinBTC$66,425.61+1.75%

EthereumETH$1,934.63+1.35%

SolanaSOL$78.40+0.63%

DogecoinDOGE$0.0736+1.87%

XRPXRP$1.14+2.71%

BNBBNB$573.63+0.23%

Notícias Relacionadas

White House pushes Senate Democrats to take 'historic' crypto Clarity Act ethics dealCoindesk

Senate nears bipartisan CLARITY Act deal after ethics breakthroughCrypto News

Russia passes landmark crypto bill allowing regulated retail tradingThe Block

Google Is Building an AI Chip Just for Gemini—And Investors Already Moved On ItDecrypt

White House agrees to ethics provisions in market structure billCointelegraph

Russia’s parliament passes crypto market law with $3,800 annual cap for retail investorsCoindesk

Regras

If a bill becomes law regulating AI by Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

The bill must impose one of the following restrictions on products using large language models: forbid their creation; set limits on how they're trained, for example by limiting access to previously usable training data or by setting limits on the number of parameters they may be trained with; prevent their use for certain applications or uses, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web; or restrict the ability of US citizens to use foreign LLM-based products or restrict US operated LLM products or businesses from being sold to foreign customers or entities.
The export restriction must be specific, and not universally applied to all exports or exports of a broad industry.
For example, a blanket ban on exports to a specific country would not qualify, and neither would a blanket ban on allowing the purchase of US businesses by investors in a specific country.
Introducing a ban that specifically limits the export of artificial intelligence or machine learning software to a specific country or a broad number of countries would qualify if it was known to apply to LLM products.
An introduced bill specifically classifying artificial intelligence software or machine learning models such that they would newly qualify for existing export bans would qualify.