Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoAviso de qualidade dos dadosDados desatualizados
Dados de 27 de out. de 2026, 03:40 UTC · política pm-quality-4
Previsão da comunidade atualNão 95%
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45
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Desatualizado17/06/26, 21:25 UTC2/11/26, 23:59 UTC
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Resolves YES if the U.S. military attacks Cuba before the 2026 midterm elections on Nov 3, 2026.
- Resolves NO otherwise.
- Update 2026-06-18 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has clarified what counts as a military attack for resolution purposes:
- Counts (YES): Limited drone or missile strike, sustained bombing, full invasion
- Does NOT count (NO): Covert operatives conducting sabotage/assassination/kidnapping, or arming/directing a proxy group — unless done overtly under the US banner, or they lead to open war