Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualNão 79.4%
Previsores
9
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 3 horas
Desatualizado3/07/26, 03:06 UTC6/11/26, 13:25 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
October Unemployment Rate
PolymarketChina unemployment rate in October
KalshiWill US unemployment rate rise more than North Carolina unemployment rate in September?
Manifold MarketsWill the US Unemployment Rate exceed 3.7% in December 2026?
ForecastExBrazil unemployment rate in September
KalshiWill the US Unemployment Rate exceed 4.2% in November 2026? (Jobless) (Jobs) (Labor market) (Layoffs) (Economy)?
ForecastExRegras
This market resolves YES if the initial BLS Employment Situation release for October 2026 reports an official U-3 unemployment rate of at least 4.5 percent, seasonally adjusted.
- Use the household-survey U-3 unemployment rate for October 2026 from the first BLS Employment Situation release.
- A value of 4.5% or higher resolves YES.
- A value of 4.4% or lower resolves NO.
- Do not use total nonfarm payroll employment, household employment level, labor-force participation, U-6, metro-area or state unemployment rates, demographic subseries, non-seasonally-adjusted values, forecast consensus, any-2026-month markets, or later revisions unless BLS corrects the initial October 2026 release before resolution.
- If the October 2026 Employment Situation release is delayed, wait for the first BLS release containing the October 2026 U-3 unemployment rate unless there is no such release by November 13, 2026, in which case resolve N/A. Creation context: {"latest_official_context": "The latest checked BLS Employment Situation release for June 2026 reported U-3 unemployment at 4.2 percent, total nonfarm payroll employment up 57,000, and labor-force participation at 61.5 percent.", "metric": "U-3 official unemployment rate, seasonally adjusted, household survey", "related_non_duplicates": ["October 2026 nonfarm-payroll-change markets use CES payrolls, not U-3 unemployment.", "Other months, U-6, labor-force participation, claims, ADP, JOLTS, state, metro, demographic, forecast, and revision markets are not exact duplicates.", "Any-2026-month unemployment markets are not exact duplicates of the October reference-month threshold."], "release_schedule": "BLS schedules the October 2026 Employment Situation release for 2026-11-06 at 08:30 AM Eastern.", "resolver_surface": "Initial BLS Employment Situation release for October 2026", "threshold": "4.5 percent or higher"}.
Comparação de fontes de previsão
- Também disponível em Polymarket — October Unemployment Rate · 4.2% 43%
- Também disponível em Kalshi — Unemployment rate in Oct 2026? · Exactly 4.2% 42%