Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Will the next nice number be found by a Proofnik??

A Manifold Markets cota No em 62% em 24 de outubro de 2026.

Quando Will the next nice number be found by a Proofnik? é resolvido?

Will the next nice number be found by a Proofnik? deverá ser resolvido em 2 de janeiro de 2030.

One-OffCiência3a

Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibrado

Aviso de qualidade dos dadosDados da fonte degradados

Dados de 24 de out. de 2026, 13:55 UTC · política pm-quality-4

Previsão da comunidade atual

Não 62%

Previsores

Tipo de pergunta

binary

Metodologia

Play-money forecasting platform

Tipo de fonte

Previsão

Dados do mercado

Atualizado há 1 hora

Atrasado

6/01/23, 20:35 UTC2/01/30, 07:59 UTC

Tendências

Resultado24hProbabilidade

Regras

Lemme shamelessly capitalize on my Above The Fold shoutout by making a market about my school and nice numbers.

Resolves YES if the next nice number that I learn of (according to the criteria in the market below, though it may occur after that one ends) is discovered by a current or former member of Proof School.
(Some, including @JoshuaB, are working hard!) Resolves NO if it is found by someone else.
I will extend this market indefinitely until another nice number is found.
Be warned that this market may never resolve.
(https://manifold.markets/embed/Conflux/will-i-learn-of-a-nice-number-besid-c68dd57dfc1) General policy for my markets: In the rare event of a conflict between my resolution criteria and the agreed-upon common-sense spirit of the market, I may resolve it according to the market's spirit or N/A, probably after discussion.