Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Will the EU have another major treaty before 2035??

A Manifold Markets cota Yes em 59.4% em 27 de outubro de 2026.

Quando Will the EU have another major treaty before 2035? é resolvido?

Will the EU have another major treaty before 2035? deverá ser resolvido em 31 de dezembro de 2034.

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Sim 59.4%

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binary

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Play-money forecasting platform

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Atualizado há 20 horas

Desatualizado

2/08/26, 17:22 UTC31/12/34, 23:59 UTC

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Resultado24hProbabilidade

Regras

Resolves YES if there is strong evidence that the European Union agrees and signs a major new treaty before January 1st 2035.

A “major treaty” must amend, replace, or substantially supplement the EU’s primary constitutional framework, with changes comparable in significance to the Maastricht, Amsterdam, Nice, or Lisbon Treaties.
Qualifying changes may include substantial reforms to EU institutions, decision-making or voting rules, the division of powers between the EU and member states, fiscal integration, defence policy, enlargement procedures, or membership and withdrawal rules.
The treaty must have a finalized text and be formally signed by representatives of all EU member states before the deadline.
It does not need to have entered into force or completed national ratification by that date.
The following do not qualify on their own: accession or withdrawal treaties, trade agreements, ordinary legislative acts, non-binding declarations, limited technical amendments, treaties involving only a subset of EU member states, or agreements that do not materially alter the EU’s primary legal framework.