Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualNão 84.9%
Previsores
16
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 18 horas
Desatualizado3/04/24, 15:23 UTC1/01/31, 04:59 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
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PolymarketRegras
This will have a subjective resolution, but the things I will be looking for are: Direct comparisons to 9/11 by major international news organizations,
- Featuring at least one major terrorist attack using a ship,
- And evidence of at least ~10% of the death or property damage directly inflicted by actual 9/11.
- [image]This market is inspired by the rising sense of vulnerability to international business represented by shipping logistics and related infrastructure.
- In particular, this market is focusing on the possibility of state or non-state terrorist actors using ships as improvised weapons in a method broadly similar to how planes were used on 9/11.
- A warship being used by a military to launch missiles would not count, even if it has blatantly civilian targets.
Mercados abertos
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt75%
- New People (NL)-4.1pt21%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
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- Volume total
- € 22,2 mi
- Volume 24h
- € 470,8 mil
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-2.3pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.3%
- September 30-4.0pt12.1%
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POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30+1.0pt80%
- September 18+1.0pt75%
- September 11+6.5pt70%
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POLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- No-0.2pt96%
- Yes+0.2pt4%
- Volume total
- € 35,3 mi
- Volume 24h
- € 100,1 mil
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
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POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 317%
- September 30+0.1pt1%
- July 310%
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- Volume total
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- US-Iran nuclear deal?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- What will Trump say during RNC Convention (Night 2)?
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Will some kind of "9/11 but with ships" event happen by the end of 2030??
- A Manifold Markets cota No em 85% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Will some kind of "9/11 but with ships" event happen by the end of 2030? é resolvido?
- Will some kind of "9/11 but with ships" event happen by the end of 2030? deverá ser resolvido em 1 de janeiro de 2031.
- Como Will some kind of "9/11 but with ships" event happen by the end of 2030? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: This will have a subjective resolution, but the things I will be looking for are: Direct comparisons to 9/11 by major international news organizations,