Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atual
Sim 77%
Previsores
127
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 11 horas
Desatualizado26/06/23, 09:08 UTC31/12/99, 15:59 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
Will humanity detect evidence of an extraterrestrial intelligence before the year 2100?
Manifold MarketsHas NASA's Perseverance rover found traces of extraterrestrial life ?
Manifold MarketsWill a proof of Fermat's Last Theorem simple enough for Fermat to have possessed be found by 2027?
Manifold MarketsWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
KalshiWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
PolymarketWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
KalshiRegras
This question resolves YES if conclusive evidence is found of any biological life having originated from any other planet.
- For instance, if dinosaurs or tardigrades are conclusively discovered to have originated from Mars, this question resolves YES.
- If alien bacterial life is found on other planets conclusively proven not to have originated from Earth, this resolves YES.
- If by 2100, none of these criteria have been fulfilled, this resolves NO.
Mercados abertos
ScienceKALSHIWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
- Before 2035+19.9pt95%
- Before 2030+6.0pt82%
- Before 2029+7.3pt55%
+2 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 226,3 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 125,2 mil
POLYMARKETWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- December 31+0.1pt4%
- September 30+0.1pt1%
- April 300%
+3 mais resultados
KALSHIWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
- Before Jan 20, 2029+1.0pt21%
- Before 202813%
- Before 2027+0.1pt5%
+5 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 28,6 mi
KALSHIWhen will the Riemann hypothesis be solved?
- Before 2030+71.0pt92%
- Before 2035+11.0pt56%
- Before 203248%
+1 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 108,3 mil
KALSHIWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- No97%
- Yes-0.9pt3%
- Volume total
- € 1,6 mi
- Volume 24h
- € 5,2 mil
POLYMARKETMin Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
- 4.4-4.6m+18.6pt65.7%
- 4.2-4.4m-20.9pt26.5%
- 4.6-4.8m+0.8pt2.9%
+4 mais resultados
- How many 5.5 or above earthquakes worldwide September 7 - September 13?
- Will 2026 be the hottest year ever?
- 9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
- Major volcano eruption in 2026?
- Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
- When will Compass Pathways submit a NDA for COMP360 psilocybin?
- How many major Atlantic hurricanes will there be in 2026?
- Will there be an 8 magnitude earthquake in California before 2027?
- Which countries will report an Ebola case in 2026?
- US grants license for new nuclear reactor before 2027?
- How many human screwworm cases will be reported in the United States in 2026?
Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Will proof of life of extraterrestrial origin be found by 2100??
- A Manifold Markets cota Yes em 77% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Will proof of life of extraterrestrial origin be found by 2100? é resolvido?
- Will proof of life of extraterrestrial origin be found by 2100? deverá ser resolvido em 31 de dezembro de 2099.
- Como Will proof of life of extraterrestrial origin be found by 2100? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: This question resolves YES if conclusive evidence is found of any biological life having originated from any other planet.