Will a proof of Fermat's Last Theorem simple enough for Fermat to have possessed be found by 2027?
One-OffCiência2mManifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualNão 98%
Previsores
47
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 4 horas
Desatualizado12/08/23, 05:27 UTC2/01/27, 05:59 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
Could Fermat have had a proof of Fermat's Last Theorem?
Manifold MarketsWill Kevin Buzzard successfully fulfill his grant specs of formalizing Fermat's Last Theorem in Lean within 5 years?
Manifold MarketsWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
PolymarketWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
KalshiDoes P = NP?
Manifold MarketsWill ANOTHER millennium prize problem be solved in 2026?
Manifold MarketsRegras
Resolves NO on January 1, 2027 if no such proof has yet been found.
- Resolves YES if such a proof is found before then.
- This would obviously likely be by an AI, but proofs from human mathematicians also count.
- I wanted a version of this question that resolves closer to within my apocalypse timeline, so I'll actually be forced to pay up [by my reckoning] if I'm wrong and Fermat goofed or was messing with us.
- I'll also be forced to pay up if people just don't turn a lot of compute toward answering this question, but I think this setup gives overall better incentives to short-timeline people.