Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualNão 92.6%
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39
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Atualizado há 3 horas
Desatualizado4/04/26, 18:24 UTC31/12/26, 23:59 UTC
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Manifold MarketsRegras
[tweet]Temporary outages do not count, permanent outages count.
- Update 2026-04-04 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Clarifications on specific scenarios:
- Removing older model generations from API (e.g., keeping Sonnet 5 but not older Sonnets) counts as cutting API access
- Keeping a mid-tier model but removing top-tier (e.g., keeping Sonnet 5 but not Opus 5) does not count as cutting API access
- No requirement to add the most advanced models (e.g., multi-agent scaffolds, 'Pro' equivalents) to the API
- Resolution requires access to at least: a mid-tier model from the current generation (e.g., Gemini Flash, Claude Sonnet, GPT Mini) OR the most advanced non-multi-agent model from the previous generation