Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualNão 92.5%
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Desatualizado4/04/26, 18:24 UTC31/12/26, 23:59 UTC
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Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
OpenAI + Anthropic vs Google - higher valuation on December 31?
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KalshiRegras
[tweet]Temporary outages do not count, permanent outages count.
- Update 2026-04-04 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Clarifications on specific scenarios:
- Removing older model generations from API (e.g., keeping Sonnet 5 but not older Sonnets) counts as cutting API access
- Keeping a mid-tier model but removing top-tier (e.g., keeping Sonnet 5 but not Opus 5) does not count as cutting API access
- No requirement to add the most advanced models (e.g., multi-agent scaffolds, 'Pro' equivalents) to the API
- Resolution requires access to at least: a mid-tier model from the current generation (e.g., Gemini Flash, Claude Sonnet, GPT Mini) OR the most advanced non-multi-agent model from the previous generation
Mercados abertos
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+60.0pt71%
- claude-opus-5-max+1.0pt7%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 132,8 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 100,3 mil
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+4.8pt60.8%
- ChatGPT+0.5pt25.5%
- Grok-3.4pt5.9%
+5 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 9,1 mi
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+1.0pt86%
- November 30,84%
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- 2028+22.0pt62.2%
- 2027+11.0pt28.6%
- 2026+4.5pt9.2%
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+5.0pt80.4%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt12.2%
- Grok2.8%
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- 1480+-1.0pt66%
- 1490+-3.5pt51%
- 1500+-1.0pt30%
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Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Will OpenAI, Anthropic or Google cut API access to their text models, in 2026??
- A Manifold Markets cota No em 93% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Will OpenAI, Anthropic or Google cut API access to their text models, in 2026? é resolvido?
- Will OpenAI, Anthropic or Google cut API access to their text models, in 2026? deverá ser resolvido em 31 de dezembro de 2026.
- Como Will OpenAI, Anthropic or Google cut API access to their text models, in 2026? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: [tweet]Temporary outages do not count, permanent outages count.