Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualSeptember 2025 100%Líder entre 15 opções
Previsores
26
Tipo de pergunta
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Variação 7d
0.0 pts
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 4 horas
Desatualizado16/09/25, 03:36 UTC30/11/26, 23:59 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
When will Anthropic release Mythos?
KalshiWhen will Anthropic release a personal AI agent?
KalshiClaude Fable 5.2+ (Anthropic) release date
Manifold MarketsWhen will Anthropic release its next Claude Fable model (newer than Fable 5.1)?
Manifold MarketsWill Anthropic release an open-weights model in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWhen will Anthropic release Claude 6?
KalshiRegras
Resolution criteria
- Each month option resolves YES if, during that calendar month (UTC), at least one of Google, OpenAI, or Anthropic makes a new large language model (LLM) publicly available beyond a private waitlist in any of: their consumer apps (Gemini/ChatGPT/Claude) or developer platforms/APIs (OpenAI API, Google AI Studio/Vertex AI, Anthropic API/AWS Bedrock/Vertex AI). “Publicly available” includes GA or an open preview accessible without individual approval.
- If availability and announcement fall in different months, use the first month of broad availability.
- “New LLM” = a newly named model or sub‑variant with a distinct model identifier added to the company’s official model/catalog (e.g., Gemini 2.5 Flash‑Lite, Claude Sonnet 4, OpenAI o3/o4‑mini/GPT‑4.5).
- Routine snapshot updates, pricing/context changes, UI features, or pure renames do not count.
- Anonymous or cloaked models do not count - if a cloaked model such as Horizon Alpha were released in one month and a company publicly claims it in the next, this market would count that model as released in the second month.
