Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualSeptember 2025 100%Líder entre 15 opções
Previsores
26
Tipo de pergunta
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Variação 7d
+15.0 pts
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 11 horas
Desatualizado16/09/25, 03:36 UTC30/11/26, 23:59 UTC
Tendências
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
0%
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
When will Anthropic release Mythos?
KalshiWhen will Anthropic release Opus 6?
KalshiClaude Opus 5.1+ (Anthropic) release date
Manifold MarketsClaude Fable 5.2+ (Anthropic) release date
Manifold MarketsWill Anthropic release an open-weights model in 2026?
Manifold MarketsOpenAI + Anthropic vs Google - higher valuation on December 31?
PolymarketRegras
Resolution criteria
- Each month option resolves YES if, during that calendar month (UTC), at least one of Google, OpenAI, or Anthropic makes a new large language model (LLM) publicly available beyond a private waitlist in any of: their consumer apps (Gemini/ChatGPT/Claude) or developer platforms/APIs (OpenAI API, Google AI Studio/Vertex AI, Anthropic API/AWS Bedrock/Vertex AI). “Publicly available” includes GA or an open preview accessible without individual approval.
- If availability and announcement fall in different months, use the first month of broad availability.
- “New LLM” = a newly named model or sub‑variant with a distinct model identifier added to the company’s official model/catalog (e.g., Gemini 2.5 Flash‑Lite, Claude Sonnet 4, OpenAI o3/o4‑mini/GPT‑4.5).
- Routine snapshot updates, pricing/context changes, UI features, or pure renames do not count.
- Anonymous or cloaked models do not count - if a cloaked model such as Horizon Alpha were released in one month and a company publicly claims it in the next, this market would count that model as released in the second month.
Mercados abertos
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+60.0pt71%
- claude-opus-5-max+1.0pt7%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 132,8 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 100,3 mil
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+4.8pt60.8%
- ChatGPT+0.5pt25.5%
- Grok-3.4pt5.9%
+5 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 9,1 mi
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+1.0pt86%
- November 30,84%
+7 mais resultados
- Volume total
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+22.0pt62.2%
- 2027+11.0pt28.6%
- 2026+4.5pt9.2%
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+5.0pt80.4%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt12.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 322,4 mil
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-1.0pt66%
- 1490+-3.5pt51%
- 1500+-1.0pt30%
+2 mais resultados
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Which months will Google OR OpenAI OR Anthropic release a new LLM?
- A Manifold Markets cota September 2025 em 100% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Which months will Google OR OpenAI OR Anthropic release a new LLM é resolvido?
- Which months will Google OR OpenAI OR Anthropic release a new LLM deverá ser resolvido em 30 de novembro de 2026.
- Como Which months will Google OR OpenAI OR Anthropic release a new LLM é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: Resolution criteria