Will OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, or Meta release a model with context window >= 5M tokens before Dec 31, 2026?
IAOne-OffTecnologia4mManifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualNão 74%
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Atualizado há 15 horas
Desatualizado29/03/26, 14:55 UTC15/01/27, 00:00 UTC
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Resolution criteria (strict):
- Resolves YES if OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, or Meta publicly releases a model documented with context window >= 5,000,000 tokens by 2026-12-31.
- Must be an official release with public documentation or official product/API announcement.
- Rumors, leaks, unofficial benchmarks, or third-party claims do NOT count.
- If no qualifying official release appears by deadline, resolves NO.
- Primary sources:
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Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Will OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, or Meta release a model with context window >= 5M tokens before Dec 31, 2026??
- A Manifold Markets cota No em 74% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Will OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, or Meta release a model with context window >= 5M tokens before Dec 31, 2026? é resolvido?
- Will OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, or Meta release a model with context window >= 5M tokens before Dec 31, 2026? deverá ser resolvido em 15 de janeiro de 2027.
- Como Will OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, or Meta release a model with context window >= 5M tokens before Dec 31, 2026? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: Resolution criteria (strict):