Will OpenRouter's top 3 most used models all cost less than $1.00 per million tokens on Dec 31, 2026?
IAOne-Off2mManifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualNão 57.6%
Previsores
7
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 45 minutos
Atrasado1/06/26, 14:36 UTC31/12/26, 23:59 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
Will OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, or Meta release a model with context window >= 5M tokens before Dec 31, 2026?
Manifold MarketsThe context windows of frontier models will stay around one million tokens in 2026
Manifold MarketsAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketAnthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
PolymarketBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiWhich company has the best AI model end of October?
PolymarketRegras
As agent frameworks mature, high-volume, low-cost "inference-optimized" or highly distilled models may completely take over background agent loops from high-cost frontier models.
- This market resolves to YES if, on December 31, 2026, each of the top 3 models individually costs less than $1.00 per 1 million tokens.
- For a model to qualify, the sum of its individual input price per million tokens and its output price per million tokens must be less than $1.00.
- If Model #1, Model #2, and Model #3 all individually cost under $1.00/M tokens, this market resolves to YES.
- If any model in the top 3 spots costs $1.00/M tokens or more, this market resolves to NO.
- Resolves based on the "This Month" filter of the OpenRouter LLM Leaderboard (openrouter.ai/rankings) on Dec 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM PT (-ish).