Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualAt least 1.1 Million 69.9%Líder entre 5 opções
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6
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multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
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Variação 7d
0.0 pts
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 10 horas
Desatualizado9/03/26, 07:41 UTC31/12/26, 23:59 UTC
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Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
Will OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, or Meta release a model with context window >= 5M tokens before Dec 31, 2026?
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Manifold MarketsRegras
People are talking about continual learning being solved effectively through brute force, by giving LLMs extremely large context windows.
- How far will this go in 2026?
- By top three AI labs, I mean Anthropic, OpenAI, and Google.
- So far the largest context window available from these companies is GPT 5.4 with a 1.05M token context, with Anthropic and Google both having models with 1M.
- Previously Google has also offered models with 2M token context (Gemini 1.5, which didn't seem to make good use of the large context window), but for this question I'll consider only models released during 2026.
- I will resolve based on the largest context windows which are publicly available, whether through API, chat, agentic coding services, etc. I won't evaluate how effectively models can actually use their advertised context windows, although I hope we get more robust benchmarks for this in general.
Mercados abertos
AI
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-12.0pt72%
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- 2027-3.5pt28.4%
- 2026+2.0pt9.5%
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- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
+7 mais resultados
- Volume total
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
+5 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 9,1 mi
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- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-1.0pt11.2%
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- 1480+-2.5pt66%
- 1490+-9.0pt51%
- 1500+-3.0pt23%
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- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
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Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Largest context window for an LLM from a top three AI lab in 2026??
- A Manifold Markets cota At least 1.1 Million em 70% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Largest context window for an LLM from a top three AI lab in 2026? é resolvido?
- Largest context window for an LLM from a top three AI lab in 2026? deverá ser resolvido em 31 de dezembro de 2026.
- Como Largest context window for an LLM from a top three AI lab in 2026? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: People are talking about continual learning being solved effectively through brute force, by giving LLMs extremely large context windows.