Will nuclear war cause a global catastrophe killing at least 10% of humans before 2100?
GeopolíticaOne-Off
Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualNão 85.6%
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8
Tipo de pergunta
binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Atualizado há 8 horas
Desatualizado21/07/23, 00:35 UTC2/01/00, 04:59 UTC
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This question will resolve as Yes if the human population decreases by at least 10% in any period of 5 years or less, and the cause is principally due to nuclear weapons.
- Years are here defined as consecutive calendar years.
- I.e. resolves YES if both of the following resolve YES:
- https://manifold.markets/jack/global-catastrophe-series-by-2100-w and
- https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1494/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nuclear-war/
