Will most physicists believe in a version of the Mathematical Universe Hypothesis by 2030?
One-OffCiência3a
Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atual
Não 89.2%
Previsores
12
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 2 horas
Desatualizado9/12/24, 23:25 UTC2/01/30, 04:59 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
Is Max Tegmark's mathematical universe hypothesis correct?
Manifold MarketsWill AIs be widely recognized as having developed a new, innovative, foundational mathematical theory before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWhich of these hypothetical mathematical objects will be shown to exist with an explicit example before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWhen will the Riemann hypothesis be solved?
KalshiWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
KalshiWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
PolymarketRegras
Resolves YES if a super-majority (2/3rds) of cosmologists and / or theoretical physicists agree one way or the other, according to a reputable survey, on or before the year 2030.
- If no "reputable" survey exists by the end date, then the market will resolve as NO.
- Reputable surveys have at least 100 responses and are performed by a reputable organization.
- "A version" of the Mathematical Universe Hypothesis is defined as any "theory of everything" where "the universe is a mathematical object in and of itself".
- Some info on the mathematical universe hypothesis can be found here.
Mercados abertos
ScienceKALSHIWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
- Before 2035+10.0pt85%
- Before 2030+7.0pt83%
- Before 2029+17.9pt50%
+2 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 211 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 110,5 mil
POLYMARKETWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- December 31+0.1pt4%
- September 30+0.1pt1%
- April 300%
+3 mais resultados
KALSHIWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
- Before Jan 20, 2029-1.0pt20%
- Before 202812%
- Before 20275%
+5 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 28,6 mi
- Volume 24h
- € 21,3 mil
KALSHIWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- No96%
- Yes+1.9pt4%
- Volume total
- € 1,6 mi
- Volume 24h
- € 5,2 mil
KALSHIWhen will Intellia Therapeutics submit a BLA for Lonvo-z?
- before October+64.0pt98%
- before 2027+22.0pt98%
- before December+30.0pt98%
+3 mais resultados
KALSHIWhen will the Riemann hypothesis be solved?
- Before 2035+4.0pt49%
- Before 2030+18.0pt39%
- Before 2032-9.0pt39%
+1 mais resultados
- Volume total
- Will 2026 be the hottest year ever?
- Will there be an 8 magnitude earthquake in California before 2027?
- Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon?
- Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
- When will Compass Pathways submit a NDA for COMP360 psilocybin?
- How many 5.5 or above earthquakes worldwide September 7 - September 13?
- How many major Atlantic hurricanes will there be in 2026?
- Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
- How many 6.5 or above earthquakes worldwide September 7 - September 13?
- Natural Disaster in 2026?
Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Will most physicists believe in a version of the Mathematical Universe Hypothesis by 2030??
- A Manifold Markets cota No em 89% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Will most physicists believe in a version of the Mathematical Universe Hypothesis by 2030? é resolvido?
- Will most physicists believe in a version of the Mathematical Universe Hypothesis by 2030? deverá ser resolvido em 2 de janeiro de 2030.
- Como Will most physicists believe in a version of the Mathematical Universe Hypothesis by 2030? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: Resolves YES if a super-majority (2/3rds) of cosmologists and / or theoretical physicists agree one way or the other, according to a reputable survey, on or before the year 2030.