Will Iran run out of ballistic missiles before the coalition runs out of interceptors?
GeopolíticaOne-OffOriente Médio4m
Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualSim 65.9%
Previsores
12
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 24 minutos
16/03/26, 21:29 UTC16/03/27, 21:28 UTC
Tendências
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Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES if Iran exhausts its ballistic missile inventory before the coalition (US, Israel, and Gulf state allies) exhausts its air defense interceptor stockpile.
- This market resolves NO if the coalition exhausts its interceptor stockpile first.
- Resolution will be determined by daily launch count, interception rates, and official statements from the US Department of Defense, Israeli Ministry of Defense, or credible military intelligence assessments published by recognized defense analysis organizations (CSIS, Institute for the Study of War, etc.).
- The resolution date is March 16, 2027 (one year from market creation), but may be postponed or be brought forward, depending on how the war goes.
- Missile count: weekly average of 3 per day or lower, so long as iran is incapable of consistently hitting targets everyday, and there's no upward tend.