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This event predicts whether at least one ballistic missile will be launched by India toward China or by China toward India at any time between January 1, 2026 and December 31, 2026 (inclusive).
- The Primary Designated Source (PDS) will be official confirmations by the governments of India or China, or acknowledged military incident reports.
- If a ballistic missile is launched by one country toward the other during this period, this market will resolve to "Yes".
- Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
- Accidental or unintentional launches that are promptly acknowledged as such will not count.
- If official confirmations are unavailable or disputed, the Secondary Confirmation Mechanism (SCM) will rely on consistent reporting from major international news organizations.