Will Iran get substantial sanctions relief AND tolls on ships in exchange for reopening Hormuz before April 5, 2027?
Oriente MédioGeopolíticaOne-Off5m
Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoAviso de qualidade dos dadosDados da fonte degradados
Dados de 25 de out. de 2026, 23:51 UTC · política pm-quality-4
Previsão da comunidade atualNão 77.2%
Previsores
47
Tipo de pergunta
binary
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Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 8 horas
Desatualizado5/04/26, 22:29 UTC5/04/27, 22:27 UTC
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Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES if, 1 month after the Strait of Hormuz is opened to typical amounts of traffic (>50% of traffic prior to the closure), there is a public agreement between Iran and the relevant international parties (e.g., the U.S. or a UN-backed coalition) that explicitly includes both of the following conditions:
- Substantial sanctions relief: A verifiable, significant easing of economic sanctions currently imposed on Iran by major international powers (not merely minor exemptions or renewals).
- Tolls on ships: The formal establishment of a mechanism allowing Iran to legally levy tolls or fees on commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz.
- The market resolves to NO if no such agreement is reached by April 5, 2027, or if an agreement is reached that does not include both provisions.
- Official government press releases, international news agencies (e.g., Reuters, AP, Bloomberg), and verified transcripts of diplomatic agreements will be used to determine the outcome.