Will Iran get substantial sanctions relief AND tolls on ships in exchange for reopening Hormuz?
Middle EastGeopolíticaOne-Off6mManifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualNão 75%
Previsores
47
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
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Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 14 horas
Desatualizado5/04/26, 22:29 UTC5/04/27, 22:27 UTC
Tendências
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Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES if, 1 month after the Strait of Hormuz is opened to typical amounts of traffic (>50% of traffic prior to the closure), there is a public agreement between Iran and the relevant international parties (e.g., the U.S. or a UN-backed coalition) that explicitly includes both of the following conditions:
- Substantial sanctions relief: A verifiable, significant easing of economic sanctions currently imposed on Iran by major international powers (not merely minor exemptions or renewals).
- Tolls on ships: The formal establishment of a mechanism allowing Iran to legally levy tolls or fees on commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz.
- The market resolves to NO if no such agreement is reached by the date specified, or if an agreement is reached that does not include both provisions.
- Official government press releases, international news agencies (e.g., Reuters, AP, Bloomberg), and verified transcripts of diplomatic agreements will be used to determine the outcome.
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Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Will Iran get substantial sanctions relief AND tolls on ships in exchange for reopening Hormuz??
- A Manifold Markets cota No em 75% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Will Iran get substantial sanctions relief AND tolls on ships in exchange for reopening Hormuz? é resolvido?
- Will Iran get substantial sanctions relief AND tolls on ships in exchange for reopening Hormuz? deverá ser resolvido em 5 de abril de 2027.
- Como Will Iran get substantial sanctions relief AND tolls on ships in exchange for reopening Hormuz? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: Resolution criteria