Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoAviso de qualidade dos dadosDados da fonte degradados
Dados de 25 de out. de 2026, 20:50 UTC · política pm-quality-4
Previsão da comunidade atualSim 75.2%
Previsores
91
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 2 horas
Desatualizado13/03/26, 20:59 UTC31/12/26, 23:59 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
Will Iran become more authoritarian in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Israel become more authoritarian in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill the United States become more authoritarian in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill India become more authoritarian in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Iran become a democracy in 2026?
KalshiUS-Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
PolymarketRegras
With the US and Israel launching a war on Iran and assassinating the Supreme Leader, will Iran become more authoritarian in 2026, or will this give way to a freer regime?
- If The Economist Democracy Index scores Iran lower for the year of 2026 than 2025, this market resolves YES.
- If it scores the same or higher, this market resolves NO.
- -- details below --
- Note that at the time of market creation, the 2025 The Economist Democracy Index has not yet been published, though it is expected to be published soon.
- To be clear, this market is comparing the index covering the state of Iran in 2025 and 2026, not the index published in 2025 and 2026.