Will IMF PortWatch show a Strait of Hormuz 7-day transit average of 15 or more on any date through Oct 15, 2026?
GeopolíticaOne-OffOriente MédioManifold MarketsFechadoSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosBem calibradoEste mercado foi resolvido: No (98.6%)
Resolvido: 21 de out. de 2026, 00:23
Resolução verificada pelo provedor
A CoinRithm tem evidência do provedor para o vencedor e o horário de liquidação deste mercado.
Resultado Vencedor
No
A 7 dias
99%
A 24 horas
—
Aviso de qualidade dos dadosDados desatualizados
Dados de 21 de out. de 2026, 16:41 UTC · política pm-quality-4
Linha do Tempo de Probabilidade
Yes1.4%
No98.6%
Ganhou
Perdeu
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by October 31?
PolymarketWill there be a food shortage related to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz?
Manifold MarketsStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? [Polymarket]
Manifold MarketsWill bitcoin rise to 105k before the Strait of Hormuz is freely open?
Manifold MarketsStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by ...
Manifold MarketsRegras
This market resolves YES if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls ("Arrivals of Ships") for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 15 for any date from 2026-08-15 through 2026-10-15 inclusive.
- Otherwise NO.
- Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships — i.e. the n_total field.
- Ships not reported by IMF PortWatch are not considered.
- Resolution source (named, public, machine-readable): IMF PortWatch daily chokepoint data for portid='chokepoint6', as published in the PortWatch dashboard and its downloadable / ArcGIS feed: https://services9.arcgis.com/weJ1QsnbMYJlCHdG/arcgis/rest/services/Daily_Chokepoints_Data/FeatureServer/0/query?where=portid%3D%27chokepoint6%27&outFields=date,n_total&orderByFields=date%20DESC&resultRecordCount=30&f=json
- The 7-day moving average is the mean of n_total over the stated date and the six preceding days.