Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualNão 78.2%
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18
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
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Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 20 horas
Desatualizado4/04/26, 09:42 UTC31/12/27, 10:38 UTC
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Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
Iran charges Hormuz fees by which date?
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PolymarketStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
PolymarketTraffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (10/26 - 11/1)
KalshiRegras
Resolves YES if the conflict ends, but ships still pay fees to Iran to pass through the Strait of Hormuz.
- The payments should be a part of what I deem to be a normalized process in the post-war period for this to resolve YES.
- To determine if the conflict ends, I will use the resolution of https://polymarket.com/event/iran-x-israelus-conflict-ends-by or of a similar market with expiration dates beyond December 31st.
- If there is no such substantially similar market, and the existing Polymarket answers resolve to NO, I will use a consensus of credible reporting to determine roughly when the conflict ends.
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