Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualNão 93%
Previsores
35
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 6 horas
Desatualizado21/03/26, 08:37 UTC31/12/26, 23:59 UTC
Tendências
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Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
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Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES if China conducts a military invasion of Taiwan before January 1, 2027.
- An invasion is defined as a large-scale, sustained military operation involving amphibious assault, airborne operations, or direct military occupation of Taiwan's territory.
- The resolution will be based on credible reporting from major international news sources (Reuters, AP, BBC, Bloomberg, etc.) and official statements from Taiwan's government or the U.S. State Department.
- Isolated military incidents, exercises, blockades, or cyber operations do not constitute an invasion.
- Xi Jinping has directed the PLA to accelerate its timeline for developing invasion capabilities from 2035 to 2027.
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Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Will China invade Taiwan before 2027?
- A Manifold Markets cota No em 93% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Will China invade Taiwan before 2027 é resolvido?
- Will China invade Taiwan before 2027 deverá ser resolvido em 31 de dezembro de 2026.
- Como Will China invade Taiwan before 2027 é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: Resolution criteria