Will an AI Labor Shock Crash Markets by 2035?
EconomiaIAOne-OffSaúde e medicinaAçõesEuropaNegócios e empresas8a
Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualSim 58.9%
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8
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
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Atualizado há 1 hora
Atrasado8/12/25, 01:46 UTC31/12/34, 23:59 UTC
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ForecastExRegras
Resolves as YES if there is strong evidence that, before January 1st 2035, a major equity market correction is triggered primarily by AI‑ and robotics‑driven reductions in the economic value of human labor, as defined below.
- What counts as a “major equity market correction”?
- For this market, a “major correction” means:
- At least one of these broad indices:
- Suffers a peak‑to‑trough decline of ≥30% in nominal terms,
- With the peak and trough no more than 18 months apart.
