Will AGI cause US nominal GDP to at least double between 2025 to 2035?
InflaçãoOne-OffEconomiaIAMacro e economia8a
Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualSim 75%
Previsores
22
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 2 horas
Desatualizado3/02/25, 09:03 UTC1/01/35, 04:59 UTC
Tendências
Ativos Sensíveis ao Macro
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
US nominal GDP growth in 2034
KalshiWhen AI has achieved AGI, will U.S. nominal GDP at least double within 2 years?
Manifold MarketsWhen AI has achieved AGI, will U.S. nominal GDP at least double within 1 year?
Manifold MarketsWhen AI has achieved AGI, will U.S. nominal GDP at least double within 10 years?
Manifold MarketsWhen AI has achieved AGI, will U.S. nominal GDP at least double within 7 years?
Manifold MarketsUS Nominal GDP in 2026
KalshiRegras
Historically, the U.S. economy has taken about 15–20 years to double in size when looking at nominal GDP.
- For example, it rose from roughly $10 trillion in 2000 to about $20 trillion in 2017.
- Some experts now argue that artificial intelligence could drive faster growth, potentially allowing the economy to double every 10 years—much shorter than the usual historical timeline.
- This question focuses on whether AI-driven productivity gains will accelerate U.S. economic expansion enough to double nominal GDP from 2025 to 2035.
- Resolution Criteria
- Data Source: The annual nominal (current-dollar) GDP figures published by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
