Aviso de qualidade dos dadosDados da fonte degradados
Dados de 26 de out. de 2026, 05:41 UTC · política pm-quality-4
Previsão da comunidade atual
Não 79%
Previsores
5
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 13 horas
Desatualizado3/02/25, 09:46 UTC1/01/41, 04:59 UTC
Tendências
Ativos Sensíveis ao Macro
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
When AI has achieved AGI, will U.S. nominal GDP at least double within 3 years?
Manifold MarketsWhen AI has achieved AGI, will U.S. nominal GDP at least double within 5 years?
Manifold MarketsWhen AI has achieved AGI, will U.S. nominal GDP at least double within 1 year?
Manifold MarketsWhen AI has achieved AGI, will U.S. nominal GDP at least double within 7 years?
Manifold MarketsOpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?
PolymarketMexico Nominal GDP in 2026
KalshiRegras
Historically, the U.S. economy has taken about 15–20 years to double in size when looking at nominal GDP.
- For instance, it went from roughly $10 trillion in 2000 to around $20 trillion in 2017.
- Some experts argue that the emergence of AGI—or an AI passing the Turing test—could radically boost productivity and compress this timeline, allowing the economy to double in just 2 years.
- This question focuses on whether that transformative AI milestone will, in fact, speed up U.S. nominal GDP growth to such an extent.
- Resolution Criteria
- Event Trigger: A widely recognized, public declaration that an AI system has achieved AGI or passed the Turing test.