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Play-money forecasting platform
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Atualizado há 11 horas
Desatualizado3/02/25, 09:46 UTC1/01/41, 04:59 UTC
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KalshiRegras
Historically, the U.S. economy has taken about 15–20 years to double in size when looking at nominal GDP.
- For instance, it went from roughly $10 trillion in 2000 to around $20 trillion in 2017.
- Some experts argue that the emergence of AGI—or an AI passing the Turing test—could radically boost productivity and compress this timeline, allowing the economy to double in just 2 years.
- This question focuses on whether that transformative AI milestone will, in fact, speed up U.S. nominal GDP growth to such an extent.
- Resolution Criteria
- Event Trigger: A widely recognized, public declaration that an AI system has achieved AGI or passed the Turing test.
Mercados abertos
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Criptos relacionadas
Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de When AI has achieved AGI, will U.S. nominal GDP at least double within 2 years??
- A Manifold Markets cota No em 79% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando When AI has achieved AGI, will U.S. nominal GDP at least double within 2 years? é resolvido?
- When AI has achieved AGI, will U.S. nominal GDP at least double within 2 years? deverá ser resolvido em 1 de janeiro de 2041.
- Como When AI has achieved AGI, will U.S. nominal GDP at least double within 2 years? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: Historically, the U.S. economy has taken about 15–20 years to double in size when looking at nominal GDP.