Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualNão 93.7%
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Desatualizado12/12/22, 15:27 UTC1/01/40, 05:00 UTC
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Resolves YES if one country attacks another country with a nuclear weapon for reasons that are clearly a part of the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
- Resolves NO if the conflict is resolved without any such detonations.
- A "resolved" confict means that we reach a state of affairs where it doesn't seem likely that one country will use force against another any time in the near future.
- They don't have to actually be friendly with each other, but there do need to be no threatening troop movements or nonviolent attacks such as government-sponsored hacks or aggressive economic sanctions.
- A nuclear test meant to intimidate an opposing country doesn't count.