Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atual
Não 93.5%
Previsores
91
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
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Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 6 horas
Desatualizado12/12/22, 15:27 UTC1/01/40, 05:00 UTC
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Resolves YES if one country attacks another country with a nuclear weapon for reasons that are clearly a part of the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
- Resolves NO if the conflict is resolved without any such detonations.
- A "resolved" confict means that we reach a state of affairs where it doesn't seem likely that one country will use force against another any time in the near future.
- They don't have to actually be friendly with each other, but there do need to be no threatening troop movements or nonviolent attacks such as government-sponsored hacks or aggressive economic sanctions.
- A nuclear test meant to intimidate an opposing country doesn't count.
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Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in the Russia-Ukraine war??
- A Manifold Markets cota No em 94% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in the Russia-Ukraine war? é resolvido?
- Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in the Russia-Ukraine war? deverá ser resolvido em 1 de janeiro de 2040.
- Como Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in the Russia-Ukraine war? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: Resolves YES if one country attacks another country with a nuclear weapon for reasons that are clearly a part of the Russia-Ukraine conflict.