Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualNão 91.8%
Previsores
10
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 18 horas
Desatualizado7/06/26, 10:36 UTC31/12/26, 23:59 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
Which country will join Abraham Accords before 2027?
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Manifold MarketsWhich countries will join NATO as members in 2026?
FutuurWhich country will be the next to join the European Union?
Manifold MarketsRegras
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to YES if any new country officially joins the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) before January 1, 2027 (00:00 UTC).
- If no new country joins before this deadline, the market will resolve to NO.
- For the purposes of this market, a country is considered to have officially joined NATO when it deposits its instrument of accession to the North Atlantic Treaty with the Government of the United States of America (the official depositary of the Treaty) in accordance with Article 10 of the North Atlantic Treaty.
- The primary source of truth for this market will be NATO's official member countries page and official press releases from the NATO official website.
- Any country beyond the 32 existing member states that successfully completes accession and is listed as a full member before the deadline will trigger a YES resolution.
Mercados abertos
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30-6.0pt74%
- September 18-6.0pt69%
- September 11-10.0pt61%
+2 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 1 mi
- Volume 24h
- € 363 mil
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+1.0pt74.3%
- New People (NL)+0.3pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)+0.3pt3%
POLYMARKETStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- No+3.0pt79.2%
- Yes-3.0pt20.8%
- Volume total
- € 9,3 mi
- Volume 24h
- € 245,5 mil
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-0.1pt49.6%
- October 31-1.0pt29.1%
- September 30-1.0pt12%
+17 mais resultados
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 mais resultados
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 317%
- September 301%
- July 310%
+7 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 62,8 mi
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- Next round of US-Iran peace talks by which date?
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by which date?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Iran full airspace closure by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
- China x Philippines military clash before 2027?
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Will a new country join NATO before 1 January 2027??
- A Manifold Markets cota No em 92% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Will a new country join NATO before 1 January 2027? é resolvido?
- Will a new country join NATO before 1 January 2027? deverá ser resolvido em 31 de dezembro de 2026.
- Como Will a new country join NATO before 1 January 2027? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: Resolution criteria