Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualAlina Chan 80%Líder entre 18 opções
Previsores
21
Tipo de pergunta
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Variação 7d
0.0 pts
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 11 horas
Desatualizado15/03/25, 21:40 UTC16/03/30, 06:59 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
Will the COVID lab leak theory be proven by 2027?
Manifold MarketsIn December of 2026, will Wikipedia ascribe higher credence to the lab leak theory than it did in December of 2023?
Manifold MarketsWill my resolution of the COVID-19 lab leak market be controversial?
Manifold MarketsNew COVID variant of concern before 2027?
PolymarketHantavirus pandemic in 2026?
PolymarketMeasles cases in 2026?
KalshiRegras
Covid's origin has been debated for 5 years now, with the most popular theories being a natural spillover from wildlife or some kind of laboratory accident.
- Many people have strong opinions on this question, from scientists to pundits.
- This question seeks to answer how those opinions will change, after another 5 years have passed.
- At the resolution date, I will search for the most recent statement from each person listed.
- If they say that a lab origin is more likely, I will resolve that name to yes.
- If they say that zoonosis is more likely, I will resolve that name to no.
Mercados abertos
Health & MedicinePOLYMARKETHantavirus pandemic in 2026?
- No97%
- Yes3%
- Volume total
- € 15,6 mi
- Volume 24h
- € 20,4 mil
POLYMARKETNew pandemic in 2026?
- No94.1%
- Yes5.9%
- Volume total
- € 919 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 4,2 mil
KALSHIMedtronic cardiovascular growth in Q2
- Above 8%92%
- Above 9%81%
- Above 11.5%53%
+6 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 2,6 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 2,6 mil
POLYMARKETMeasles cases in U.S. in 2026?
- ↑3.5k+0.1pt100%
- ↑500+0.1pt100%
- ↑1k+0.1pt100%
+9 mais resultados
KALSHIMeasles cases in 2026?
- Above 300099%
- Above 400097%
- Above 6000+3.0pt61%
+2 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 866,7 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 1,7 mil
KALSHIPandemic in 2026?
- No95%
- Yes5%
- Volume total
- € 611,8 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 1,1 mil
- When will Beam Therapeutics submit a BLA for Risto-cel?
- Which countries will report an Ebola disease case before October?
- When will the FDA approve Intellia Therapeutics' lonvo-z?
- When will Compass Pathways submit a NDA for COMP360 psilocybin?
- Heidi Overton confirmed as FDA Commissioner by which date?
- Will the FDA approve retatrutide?
- Ebola pandemic in 2026?
- Will WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- Measles cases in U.S. by September 30?
- When will Heidi Overton be confirmed as Commissioner of the FDA?
- FDA approves Retatrutide this year?
Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Who will support a lab leak theory of Covid's origin, in 2030??
- A Manifold Markets cota Alina Chan em 80% em 9 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Who will support a lab leak theory of Covid's origin, in 2030? é resolvido?
- Who will support a lab leak theory of Covid's origin, in 2030? deverá ser resolvido em 16 de março de 2030.
- Como Who will support a lab leak theory of Covid's origin, in 2030? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: Covid's origin has been debated for 5 years now, with the most popular theories being a natural spillover from wildlife or some kind of laboratory accident.