KalshiVerificar disponibilidadeKYC obrigatório2% de taxaDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoProbabilidade implícita atual
Before Jan 1, 2029 99%Líder entre 5 opções
Qualidade do mercado
42 / 100
Baixa qualidadeVolume 24h
446,8 €
Liquidez
14,2 mil €
Liquidez médiaSpread
17.0 pt
Spread amploDados do mercado
Atualizado há 6 minutos
14/05/26, 02:00 UTC1/07/27, 03:59 UTC
Tendências
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Manifold MarketsRegras
If the FDA approves retatrutide (LY3437943) for marketing the named outcome, then the market resolves to Yes.
Liquida via:Food and Drug Administration
- An approval is defined as:
- For new drugs: FDA issuance of an approval letter for a New Drug Application (NDA) or Biologics License Application (BLA) For already-marketed drugs seeking new indications: FDA approval of a supplemental NDA (sNDA) or supplemental BLA (sBLA) for the specific indication referenced For generic drugs: FDA approval of an Abbreviated New Drug Application (ANDA) For biosimilars: FDA approval of a 351(k) application
- The following constitute approvals that trigger the Payout Criterion:
- Standard approval (traditional approval based on clinical benefit) Accelerated approval (based on surrogate endpoints) Approval with Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy (REMS) Approval with restricted distribution or indication limitations, except compassionate use/expanded access programs
- The following do NOT constitute approvals:
Mercados abertos
Health & Medicine
POLYMARKETHantavirus pandemic in 2026?
- No97%
- Yes3%
- Volume total
- € 15,6 mi
- Volume 24h
- € 20,4 mil
POLYMARKETNew pandemic in 2026?
- No94.1%
- Yes5.9%
- Volume total
- € 919 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 4,2 mil
KALSHIMedtronic cardiovascular growth in Q2
- Above 8%92%
- Above 9%81%
- Above 11.5%53%
+6 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 2,6 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 2,6 mil
POLYMARKETMeasles cases in U.S. in 2026?
- ↑3.5k+0.1pt100%
- ↑500+0.1pt100%
- ↑1k+0.1pt100%
+9 mais resultados
KALSHIMeasles cases in 2026?
- Above 300099%
- Above 400097%
- Above 6000+3.0pt61%
+2 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 866,7 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 1,7 mil
KALSHIPandemic in 2026?
- No95%
- Yes5%
- Volume total
- € 611,8 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 1,1 mil
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Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Will the FDA approve retatrutide??
- A Kalshi cota Before Jan 1, 2029 em 99% em 10 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Will the FDA approve retatrutide? é resolvido?
- Will the FDA approve retatrutide? deverá ser resolvido em 1 de julho de 2027.
- Como Will the FDA approve retatrutide? é liquidado?
- A Kalshi liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: If the FDA approves retatrutide (LY3437943) for marketing the named outcome, then the market resolves to Yes.