Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atual
Não 98.6%
Previsores
45
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 8 horas
Desatualizado5/08/23, 20:45 UTC1/01/27, 04:59 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
In December of 2026, will Wikipedia ascribe higher credence to the lab leak theory than it did in December of 2023?
Manifold MarketsWho will support a lab leak theory of Covid's origin, in 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill my resolution of the COVID-19 lab leak market be controversial?
Manifold MarketsNew COVID variant of concern before 2027?
PolymarketHantavirus pandemic in 2026?
PolymarketNew pandemic in 2026?
PolymarketRegras
This market is supplimental to "Did COVID-19 come from a laboratory?":
- https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/did-covid19-come-from-a-laboratory
- [link preview]I found a few problems with main COVID market including a long resolution threshold (17 years) and an inactive market creator.
- I believe the long resolution time might be the primary culprit for the YES market skew.
- Resolution Criteria
- This market will resolve as YES if clear and definitive evidence is presented by investigators of a lab leak.
Mercados abertos
Health & MedicinePOLYMARKETHantavirus pandemic in 2026?
- No97%
- Yes3%
- Volume total
- € 15,6 mi
- Volume 24h
- € 20,4 mil
POLYMARKETNew pandemic in 2026?
- No94.1%
- Yes5.9%
- Volume total
- € 919 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 4,2 mil
KALSHIMedtronic cardiovascular growth in Q2
- Above 8%92%
- Above 9%81%
- Above 11.5%53%
+6 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 2,6 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 2,6 mil
POLYMARKETMeasles cases in U.S. in 2026?
- ↑3.5k+0.1pt100%
- ↑500+0.1pt100%
- ↑1k+0.1pt100%
+9 mais resultados
KALSHIMeasles cases in 2026?
- Above 300099%
- Above 400097%
- Above 6000+3.0pt61%
+2 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 866,7 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 1,7 mil
KALSHIPandemic in 2026?
- No95%
- Yes5%
- Volume total
- € 611,8 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 1,1 mil
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- Ebola pandemic in 2026?
- Will WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
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Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Will the COVID lab leak theory be proven by 2027??
- A Manifold Markets cota No em 99% em 10 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Will the COVID lab leak theory be proven by 2027? é resolvido?
- Will the COVID lab leak theory be proven by 2027? deverá ser resolvido em 1 de janeiro de 2027.
- Como Will the COVID lab leak theory be proven by 2027? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: This market is supplimental to "Did COVID-19 come from a laboratory?":