Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualMojtaba Khamenei 79.5%Líder entre 13 opções
Previsores
54
Tipo de pergunta
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Variação 7d
-1.0 pts
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 2 horas
Desatualizado9/01/26, 14:14 UTC1/01/27, 00:00 UTC
Tendências
0.5%
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Manifold MarketsRegras
The paramount leader is whoever the de facto leader of Iran is, regardless of their specific job title.
- Currently this is Supreme Leader the named outcome.
- If there is a complicated messy civil war, this goes by who controls the capital and governing apparatus.
- I intend to go by a similar standard to the CIA World Factbook or the Wikipedia infobox, though I don't commit to matching them if they're outdated or inaccurate.
- Update 2026-03-05 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If Iran adopts a constitutional monarchy or similar system where the head of state has little de facto power, the market resolves to whoever holds the most de facto power (e.g., the head of government), not the nominal head of state.
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Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Who will be paramount leader of Iran on January 1st 2027??
- A Manifold Markets cota Mojtaba Khamenei em 80% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Who will be paramount leader of Iran on January 1st 2027? é resolvido?
- Who will be paramount leader of Iran on January 1st 2027? deverá ser resolvido em 1 de janeiro de 2027.
- Como Who will be paramount leader of Iran on January 1st 2027? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: The paramount leader is whoever the de facto leader of Iran is, regardless of their specific job title.