Which arrives first: a quantum computer that can break RSA-2048, or an autonomous AI math researcher?
IAOne-Off13aManifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualAutonomous AI math researcher 89.6%Líder entre 3 opções
Previsores
12
Tipo de pergunta
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Variação 7d
0.0 pts
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 3 horas
Desatualizado19/09/25, 19:41 UTC1/01/40, 20:25 UTC
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Mercados Relacionados
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KalshiRegras
This market resolves to the event which happens first:
- Event 1: A quantum computer is capable of factoring RSA-2048 (the number has to be publicly factored, and the demonstration has to be verified).
- Event 2: An AI model is capable of autonomously generating annals-quality math papers for under 100K$, as specified in this market: https://manifold.markets/TamayBesiroglu/will-ai-be-capable-of-producing-ann
- If neither of the events happen by January 1, 2040, the market resolves to the third option.
- Update 2026-08-03 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Although the linked market by Tamay Besiroglu resolved early due to a concession, this market will remain open until the criteria for one of the events fully holds.
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Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Which arrives first: a quantum computer that can break RSA-2048, or an autonomous AI math researcher??
- A Manifold Markets cota Autonomous AI math researcher em 90% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Which arrives first: a quantum computer that can break RSA-2048, or an autonomous AI math researcher? é resolvido?
- Which arrives first: a quantum computer that can break RSA-2048, or an autonomous AI math researcher? deverá ser resolvido em 1 de janeiro de 2040.
- Como Which arrives first: a quantum computer that can break RSA-2048, or an autonomous AI math researcher? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: This market resolves to the event which happens first: