Which arrives first: a quantum computer that can break RSA-2048, or an autonomous AI math researcher?
IAOne-Off13a
Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoAviso de qualidade dos dadosDados da fonte degradados
Dados de 26 de out. de 2026, 05:03 UTC · política pm-quality-4
Previsão da comunidade atualAutonomous AI math researcher 93.5%Líder entre 3 opções
Previsores
13
Tipo de pergunta
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Variação 7d
0.0 pts
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 9 horas
Desatualizado19/09/25, 19:41 UTC1/01/40, 20:25 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
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PolymarketRegras
This market resolves to the event which happens first:
- Event 1: A quantum computer is capable of factoring RSA-2048 (the number has to be publicly factored, and the demonstration has to be verified).
- Event 2: An AI model is capable of autonomously generating annals-quality math papers for under 100K$, as specified in this market: https://manifold.markets/TamayBesiroglu/will-ai-be-capable-of-producing-ann
- If neither of the events happen by January 1, 2040, the market resolves to the third option.
- Update 2026-08-03 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Although the linked market by Tamay Besiroglu resolved early due to a concession, this market will remain open until the criteria for one of the events fully holds.
- Update 2026-09-11 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - To satisfy Event 2, the AI must be capable of autonomously writing readable, well-explained papers.