Will a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number before 2040?
One-OffTecnologiaCiência13a
Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atual
Sim 55.3%
Previsores
22
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
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Atualizado há 11 horas
Desatualizado1/11/24, 15:39 UTC1/01/40, 04:59 UTC
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Manifold MarketsRegras
The RSA‑2048 challenge number is a 617‑digit (2048‑bit) semiprime released by RSA Laboratories as a public benchmark for integer‑factorisation research.
- Demonstrating its factorisation with a general‑purpose quantum computer—one capable of running Shor’s algorithm (or an equivalent quantum‑factoring routine) at scale—would effectively break today’s RSA‑based public‑key cryptography.
- Resolution Criteria
- Evidence required – A peer‑reviewed paper in a recognized scientific journal must show that only a quantum computer was used to factor the full RSA‑2048 challenge number.
- Classical assistance – Limited classical pre‑ or post‑processing (e.g., compiling the circuit, verifying the output) is allowed, but the actual factorization step must be done by quantum hardware.
- Timing - The peer-reviewed paper’s publication date occurs before Jan 1, 2040 for the market to resolve YES.
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- Yes60%
- No40%
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- € 585,6 mil
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Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Will a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number before 2040??
- A Manifold Markets cota Yes em 55% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Will a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number before 2040? é resolvido?
- Will a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number before 2040? deverá ser resolvido em 1 de janeiro de 2040.
- Como Will a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number before 2040? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: The RSA‑2048 challenge number is a 617‑digit (2048‑bit) semiprime released by RSA Laboratories as a public benchmark for integer‑factorisation research.