Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosBem calibradoAviso de qualidade dos dadosDados desatualizados
Dados de 25 de jul. de 2026, 08:40 UTC · política pm-quality-3
Previsão da comunidade atualBefore September 2026 5.2%-11.0ptLíder entre 13 opções
Previsores
64
Tipo de pergunta
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado anteontem
Desatualizado8/08/25, 18:3730/08/26, 18:36
Tendências
0%
0%
0%
0%
Apenas fundos simulados, sem dinheiro realIsto não é aconselhamento financeiro
Resultado escolhido
Before August 20262%
Comparar plataformas· Before September 2026
Classificado por qualidade de mercado, depois liquidez e volume de 24h| Plataforma | Qualidade | Probabilidade | vs. referência | Volume 24h | Liquidez | Atualização | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 KalshiMelhor no geral90% de correspondência · verificado | Baixa | 64% | — | 17,6 € | 18,6 mil € | há 20 minutos | Abrir → |
| Manifold MarketsEsta página | — | 5% | — | — | — | anteontem |
Também disponível em Kalshi
When will xAI release Grok 5?
8.0 pts2m
58.7%
-8.0pt36.7%
4.6%
49 • Baixa qualidadeSpread amploLiquidez médiaAlta ambiguidade
Volume total38,2 mil €
Volume 24h17,6 €
KALSHIRegras
"Grok 5" refers to a model recognized as the successor of Grok 4 in a similar way to how Gemini 3 was the successor to Gemini 2, so Grok 5.0 would count, but Gemini 4.X would not.
- The model must be accessible without individual vetting or invitation — free or paid, via API or product.
- Open, non-selective waitlists count.
- Closed betas, invite-only access, researcher programs, A/B tests, and anonymous benchmark appearances do not.
- Country-level bans do not prevent resolution.
- @8AyI5Np5yl (this market)
Os dados de comparação são apenas informativos. Preços e liquidez podem variar.
Tendência de volume
$5008 de jul.8d de dados25 de jul.
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"Grok 5" refers to a model recognized as the successor of Grok 4 in a similar way to how Gemini 3 was the successor to Gemini 2, so Grok 5.0 would count, but Gemini 4.X would not.
- The model must be accessible without individual vetting or invitation — free or paid, via API or product.
- Open, non-selective waitlists count.
- Closed betas, invite-only access, researcher programs, A/B tests, and anonymous benchmark appearances do not.
- Country-level bans do not prevent resolution.
- @8AyI5Np5yl (this market)