Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualBefore February 2027 93.7%Líder entre 5 opções
Previsores
14
Tipo de pergunta
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Variação 7d
0.0 pts
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 17 horas
Desatualizado31/08/26, 14:57 UTC1/02/27, 04:59 UTC
Tendências
Regras
The '+' means any version at or above 4.8 counts: if xAI skips 4.8 and releases Grok 4.9 or Grok 5, that still counts for the purpose of this market.
- Minor changes to the name, or other names for a model generally expected to be called Grok 4.8, will also count.
- The model must be accessible without individual vetting or invitation — free or paid, via API or product.
- Open, non-selective waitlists count.
- Closed betas, invite-only access, researcher programs, A/B tests, and anonymous benchmark appearances do not.
- Country-level bans do not prevent resolution.
