Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualBefore 2027 41.3%-9.1ptLíder entre 17 opções
Previsores
36
Tipo de pergunta
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Variação 7d
-9.1 pts
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 11 horas
Desatualizado8/08/25, 19:45 UTC31/12/26, 20:44 UTC
Tendências
0%
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0%
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Manifold MarketsRegras
This market refers to OpenAI's next open-weight model release, regardless of what it is ultimately named.
- Minor naming changes from the working name 'GPT-OSS' will count.
- The model must be accessible without individual vetting or invitation — free or paid, via API or product.
- Open, non-selective waitlists count.
- Closed betas, invite-only access, researcher programs, A/B tests, and anonymous benchmark appearances do not.
- Country-level bans do not prevent resolution.
Mercados abertos
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-12.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 135,2 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 102,7 mil
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+6.5pt62.1%
- 2027-3.5pt28.4%
- 2026+2.0pt9.5%
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
+7 mais resultados
- Volume total
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
+5 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 9,1 mi
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-1.0pt11.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 325 mil
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-2.5pt66%
- 1490+-9.0pt51%
- 1500+-3.0pt23%
+2 mais resultados
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
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- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de OpenAI's next "GPT-OSS" release date?
- A Manifold Markets cota Before 2027 em 41% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando OpenAI's next "GPT-OSS" release date é resolvido?
- OpenAI's next "GPT-OSS" release date deverá ser resolvido em 31 de dezembro de 2026.
- Como OpenAI's next "GPT-OSS" release date é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: This market refers to OpenAI's next open-weight model release, regardless of what it is ultimately named.