What will happen in Russia around elections of 2026?
GeopolíticaOne-OffEleiçãoPolíticaRússia / Ucrânia
Manifold MarketsFechadoSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoDados de resolução não verificados: United Russia officially gets absolute majority (>310/450)
Este resultado é inferido ou não é apoiado por evidência de liquidação de nível provedor.
Aviso de qualidade dos dadosDados desatualizados
Dados de 11 de out. de 2026, 11:31 UTC · política pm-quality-4
Linha do Tempo de Probabilidade
Yabloko candidates are votable in day of elections97.1%
Major disruptions because of massive anti Putin/United Russia/war voting.0%
New: major part of people in Russia believe elections were falsified such that result changes (winner changes or at least UR doesn't get majority)0%
United Russia officially gets absolute majority (>310/450)100%
Resultado pendente
Resultado pendente
Resultado pendente
Resultado pendente
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Manifold MarketsRegras
Moods in the society suprise me again and again.
- Yabloko was initially allowed into elections, got massive support from young people, and even now there still are individual candidates from Yabloko even though the party list was rejected.
- Blocks of everything in internet, blocks for VPN connections on major Russian platforms, whitelists, full shutdowns.
- Ukrainian strikes on oil and marketplaces, gas shortages.
- Speeches of before apolitical or pro Putin people.
- All that is more than I expected.
