Aviso de qualidade dos dadosDados desatualizados
Dados de 25 de jul. de 2026, 04:00 UTC · política pm-quality-2
Previsão da comunidade atual
Republican president, <2% 23.2%-4.5%Líder entre 8 opções
Previsores
32
Tipo de pergunta
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado ontem
Desatualizado9/07/24, 16:051/01/29, 22:59
Tendências
Apenas fundos simulados, sem dinheiro realIsto não é aconselhamento financeiro
Resultado escolhido
Republican president, <2%23%
Tendência de volume
$3.9k24 de jul.2d de dados25 de jul.
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This market will resolve to the answer with the combination of the party of the president elected in the 2024 presidential elections and the average real GDP growth rate for the years 2025, 2026, 2027, and 2028.
- If a third-party candidate wins the 2024 presidential election, this market will be canceled.
- Average GDP growth will be calculated as the geometric mean of annual inflation-adjusted GDP growth for each of the four years, as reported by Our World in Data, or another broadly reliable source if the data cannot be obtained via Our World in Data.
- I expect the data to be available at https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/real-gdp-growth?tab=chart&time=2025..2028&country=~USA, but if Our World in Data changes the format of their URLs the data may be found at a different URL.
- My original intent was to resolve the answers of the losing party to NO after the election; but I have been informed that it is not possible in a dependent multiple choice market like this one to resolve only some of the answers.
- Know that the Democrat president answers will be NO when this market resolves.