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  3. What share of US adults will use generative AI at least weekly by the end of 2030?
Manifold Markets

What share of US adults will use generative AI at least weekly by the end of 2030?

FedWeeklyIATecnologia4a
Manifold MarketsManifold MarketsSem KYC
Previsão da comunidade atual
Manifold Markets
Less than 40% 2.1%
Líder entre 7 opções
Previsores

4

Tipo de pergunta

multiple choice

Metodologia

Play-money forecasting platform

Tipo de fonte

Previsão

Dados do mercado

Atualizado há 4 minutos

10/06/26, 11:0131/12/30, 23:59

Tendências

Resultado24hProbabilidade

Resultado escolhido

Less than 40%2%

Regras

Resolves to the share of US adults (18-64) who report using generative AI in the past week, for any purpose (work or personal), in the latest available 2030 reading of the Real-Time Population Survey (RPS — Bick, Blandin & Deming, tracked in the Federal Reserve's "Monitoring AI Adoption" series).

Manifold Markets
  • If the RPS stops publishing a comparable weekly-use measure, resolution falls back to the closest equivalent nationally representative survey: Pew Research Center first, then Gallup ("use AI at least a few times a week" or nearest equivalent; population-wide if available, otherwise workers).
  • Resolves when the final 2030 reading is published (expected early 2031).
  • Trading closes Dec 31, 2030.
  • How phone and assistant usage counts
  • The RPS is a self-report survey: it defines generative AI with named examples (ChatGPT, Gemini, Copilot, etc.) and asks whether you used it in the past week.

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Regras

Resolves to the share of US adults (18-64) who report using generative AI in the past week, for any purpose (work or personal), in the latest available 2030 reading of the Real-Time Population Survey (RPS — Bick, Blandin & Deming, tracked in the Federal Reserve's "Monitoring AI Adoption" series).

Manifold Markets
  • If the RPS stops publishing a comparable weekly-use measure, resolution falls back to the closest equivalent nationally representative survey: Pew Research Center first, then Gallup ("use AI at least a few times a week" or nearest equivalent; population-wide if available, otherwise workers).
  • Resolves when the final 2030 reading is published (expected early 2031).
  • Trading closes Dec 31, 2030.
  • How phone and assistant usage counts
  • The RPS is a self-report survey: it defines generative AI with named examples (ChatGPT, Gemini, Copilot, etc.) and asks whether you used it in the past week.